We've made it to the finale of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, as the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will congregate at East Lake Golf Club this week for the Tour Championship.
This is a unique tournament to bet on due to the staggered scores to begin the event. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will start at 10 under par, followed by Viktor Hovland at 8 under, Rory McIlroy at 7 under, Jon Rahm at 6 under, and Lucas Glover at 5 under. After them, five players will start at 4 under, five players will start at 3 under, and so on until we reach even par.
The players with the biggest head starts are obviously more likely to win the FedEx Cup, but they're nearly untouchable at their short prices. Instead, let's scroll down the board a bit and target some elite birdie-makers to make a run at the Tour Championship.
Patrick Cantlay has been a ball-striking wizard all season long. The 31-year-old ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in total driving and No. 3 in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He also ranks second in birdie-to-bogey ratio, which is exactly what we're looking for in a player that will start the tournament six strokes back of the leader at 4 under par.
Cantlay has played East Lake well recently with a T7 finish last year and a win in 2021. If anyone can catch Scheffler from six strokes behind, it's this guy.
This price feels a touch too high to me. Brian Harman will begin the tournament tied with Cantlay at 4 under par. He has five top-12 finishes and a major championship victory in his last six starts. Over that same stretch, he's gained more than 35 strokes putting, which is by far the best mark on the PGA Tour. Oh, and he also ranks fourth on Tour in birdie-to-bogey ratio this season.
Yet, despite all of that, Harman is more than triple Cantlay's price to win the tournament. That feels a bit disrespectful to the Champion Golfer of the Year.
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